Expectations for Mexico might be lower in rematch with Honduras, but the implications are much higher
Just as it did in 2023, Mexico will end 2024 with a familiar challenge: a CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal series in Honduras.
Last year, Mexico needed a bit of a miracle to get past . After falling 2-0 in Tegucigalpa, then-manager Jaime Lozano and his squad needed a pair of goals in the second leg to force a penalty shootout. Despite 11 shots on target, it took until the very last one – 11 minutes into a (properly awarded) long stoppage time – for Mexico to force kicks from the spot to decide the Nations League semifinalist.
The hope is that it won’t take the same types of heroics this time around. Whether or not once again rides its luck into the next round, much has changed this year – even if it has come around to the same point.
Mexico’s performance in its series against Honduras—and how it plays throughout both legs—will shape the team’s confidence, both internally and externally, as Javier Aguirre and his squad enter 2025.
GOAL takes a look at what has changed and what remains the same for Mexico as it kicks off its Nations League tie Friday.
Getty Images SportChange: The manager
While it’s a familiar face with Aguirre taking over the Mexico national team for the third time in his career, these are the types of matches when a steady hand is welcome. While Aguirre’s predecessor Jaime Lozano was able to get the best out of Mexico when it came to its 2023 Gold Cup-winning run, he struggled to get the best out of the team when preparation time was limited and travel was difficult like it is in the Nations Leagues ties.
That would also carry over into the Copa American and it ultimately cost him his job after failing to advance in the tournament.
Aguirre is unbeaten as Mexico's manager since his return in late July 2024, notching two wins and two draws. He is now preparing for his third "official" debut in matches that matter for . got a big boost last month, with Fulham forward Raul Jimenez not only returning to the national team but starring in a 2-0 win over the rival United States.
That has lifted the mood around the national team significantly, especially since concerns were raised after it had drawn against a Valencia squad that largely played reserves in the first game of the October window. Aguirre needs to keep the good times going with convincing results against Honduras. He'll be boosted by the fact the players seem to enjoy working with the veteran boss so far.
AdvertisementChange: The expectations
Another positive factor for Aguirre is expectations are arguably lower this time around.
Most Mexico fans were fully aboard the “Lamborjimmy” heading into the game in Honduras last year. Why wouldn’t they have been? Lozano led Mexico to the Gold Cup title, then a win over Ghana and an impressive draw against Germany in a high-profile pair of friendly matches. Yet, the cracks from the 2022 World Cup re-emerged in the Honduras series. Then that would be followed by defeat in the CONCACAF Nations League final and their struggles in the Copa America.
This time around, it feels like the Mexican federation, the fan base, and the demanding press understand the true state of the team. They are more realistic and understand that Mexico isn't a World Cup contender for the upcoming 2026 World Cup. There is more of an acceptance that the team can make changes now to build and dream about the future.
Getty ImagesSame: The player pool
Wingers Uriel Antuna and Hirving Lozano are the only players who started the second leg against Honduras last year who aren’t part of Aguirre’s squad for this match.
It’s OK to have a core group of players, but it shows the lack of depth Mexico managers have to choose from when selecting their 23-man squad and their 11-man starting lineup.
While Toluca’s domestic success made it look like Marcel Ruiz or Jesus Angulo would be options in attack, Aguirre instead has turned to veteran forward Ángel Sepúlveda.
It’s a nice story of resilience, and his late-game heroics for Cruz Azul hint that he could have something to provide for the national team. Yet, the 33-year-old actually is older than Jimenez. Between Jimenez, Sepúlveda, América’s Henry Martín, and Pumas’ Guillermo Martínez, Aguirre has called in a four-man central forward grouping with an average age over 31.5.
Elsewhere on the field, Johan Vasquez and Cesar Montes, once considered the center-back pairing of the future have largely solidified as the pairing of the present. They are continuing to refine their partnership with star defensive midfielder Edson Alvarez in front of them. It's an area where Aguirre can count on. Just ahead of Alvarez in the midfield, Luis Chavez’s return should give the squad a far better option when it comes to a two-way midfielder.
There’s no flashy superstar, though, and more concerning, there's no up-and-comer to potentially follow and see if he can make a difference against Honduras.
GettyRaised: The stakes
While the expectations for Mexico are lower, the stakes may be even higher for the team this time around. Miss out on the Nations League Final Four and rather than likely showdowns with the United States and Panama (though Jamaica and Costa Rica will have plenty to say about that), Mexico would be in a playoff to try to qualify for the Gold Cup.
With limited international windows until Mexico begins the 2026 World Cup in Mexico City, the team needs to face as much top competition as it can. It needs to play matches that are as close to the ones it will play at the World Cup as possible.
Failing to get out of the quarterfinal not only would be a huge disappointment for a team that has long prided itself as the giant in the region, but it also would heap unwanted pressure on it in March when Aguirre and his staff would much rather have the challenge and joy of playing for a trophy.
What Mexico does in this window will be a good barometer for just how much this team has progressed – or not – in one calendar year. And it will determine what resolutions and goals the team can reasonably set for the new year.